Why China's nuclear weapons strategy could rapidly escalate conventional weapons strike to nuclear

Washington, Sep 16 (ANI): An expert assessment of China's nuclear weapons strategy has highlighted the risk of escalation to nuclear war from a conflict beginning with conventional weapons, due to the unusual structure of the nation's military.

According to a new study by John W. Lewis and Xue Litai, of Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), China's unique deployment of modern conventional ballistic missiles had a decisive effect on its war plan.

The study appears as the latest edition of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which is believed to be the first comprehensive non-governmental research on how China's nuclear-war plan was developed.

The article notes that Beijing's nuclear missiles exist to deter a nuclear strike on China, and are only to be used in extreme conditions. At the same time, the conventional weapons on the formerly all-nuclear bases must be ready to strike first and hard. Targeted enemies and their allies will not immediately be able to distinguish whether any missiles fired are conventional or nuclear, the study said.

"The basic dilemma for the war planners stems from the deployment of the two types of missiles on the same Second Artillery bases with fundamentally different capabilities and purposes," Lewis and Xue said.

This means that those enemies may justifiably launch on warning and retaliate against all the command-and-control systems and missile assets of the Chinese missile launch base and even the overall command-and-control system of the central Second Artillery headquarters, the study cited.

"That disastrous outcome would force the much smaller surviving and highly vulnerable Chinese nuclear missile units to fire their remaining missiles against the enemy's homeland. Escalation to nuclear war could become accelerated and unavoidable," they warned.

Chinese military planners tend to take the view that launching conventional weapons from nuclear bases might deter any direct response, because the victim of that attack would fear the consequences of retaliating against bases that have nuclear and not just conventional weapons. This fear could in turn prevent escalation of a nuclear war, the study said.

Beijing's overall defence strategy has evolved significantly in recent decades. According to the authors, China's revolutionary leader Mao Zedong directly shaped the policies for the Second Artillery, the nation's strategic missile forces, the study noted. (ANI)